I read Strauss and Howe's other book Generations, but I liked this one a bit more. Despite the Jungian overlay, I can certainly buy into the notion that the attitudes of one generation can shape the attitudes of the next, and roll on through a cycle of 4 generations. I have to wonder about the "inevitable" crisis that occurs to flip the cycle over into the next cycle however. The longwave does not seem particularly correlated with the turnings they discuss - they seem to focus on convulsions in the sociopolitical system, while the longwave has a more purely economic basis. A periodic collective crankiness? Solar flares? Although they make a good case, I'm still a bit dubious about the mechanism that gives rise to this cycle.
I do appreciate their descriptions of the generations though. They get GenX down quite well IMHO, and their description of the Millennials seems to match my own observations. But I do have a few other points to bring up:
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In the wake of the Columbine Shootings, one interesting analysis I read was that the problem was exacerbated by the extreme cliquishness that the Millennials seem to be prone to. I guess you have to take reporting about "those damn kids" with a grain of salt, but it may very well be the case. If this is so, the proto-tribalism and the strict ostracism of "outsiders" may not be an ideal psychological tendency for going into the 4th turning. (But on the bright side, this kind of group dynamic will make them great cannon fodder in the next war. Wait a second, what's so bright about that...)
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According to somebody (Eric Hoffer or Arthur Koestler), the people who make the best revolutionaries are the ones that grow up with a rather bourgeois existence, but are then thrown down the social hierarchy due to some social cataclysm. (Czarist Russia...Weimar Germany... KleptoCapitalistic Russia?). If this is true than the children born since 1982 have really experienced no real recession or "hard-times" to speak of. I doubt few of them really remember the "recession" of 1990. They are all coming into awareness during the greatest stock market boom in history, with Bill Gates a gazillionairre, and every decent sports figure pulling down a 7 figure salary. If the bubble breaks in the next decade (I still lean towards a nearer correction), the tremendous revision of positive expectations will prove to be a gut-wrenching blow. It's the sort of blow that could possibly be exploited by nationalist demagogues - esp. with this possible tendency towards group conformity among the Millennials.
Complexity Politics
I've also been thinking some more about the future of poltics/governance. It is rather appalling how much the Newtonian.and Mechanistic paradigm continues to form the basis for our ideas of how the world works. I don't have to tell you any of this of course. I remember the "Quantum Politics" you described in class, and it certainly seems a likely component of future models for the way the world works. But I also think that the new non-linear sciences (complexity, chaos) have a role to play as well. I did some Internet browsing looking for the political implications of complexity theory, and it does seem that it could form part of a new political paradigm.
I don't know if I'm reading this stuff with a strong personal bias, but it all seems pretty libertarian to me. After reading some Hayek, none of this stuff seems very surprising. Independent actors following simple rules can give rise to new and unexpected structures? Sounds like a version of the "invisible hand" to me. Small changes in a critical variable can lead to massive changes in another part of the system? It seems similar to the unintended consequences of regulation that the public choice people always prattle on about. Perhaps the future political spectrum will be between those who wish the government to intervene at those critical moments where a small push can cause a major effect, and those who would rather trust things to the wisdom of the "swarm" and will work to keep it functioning properly.
I'm sure it will take years for these ideas to work their way into public consciousness, but I wonder if the metaphors used by the mass media will end up being a lagging or a leading indicator of the changes that will occur. I don't mean the content of news pieces, but rather the metaphors that are used to describe the functioning of the world. Now the economy is "overheating" and bad economies need to be "jump-started." Our political system is "broken" and needs to be "fixed". I'm sure some academic must have looked at this during industrialization...hmm.
Flareup of Waco
I did a bit about the Militias for one of your classes, but I also elaborated the basic research a bit more for one of Neubauer's Global Capitalism classes. It's not so much the Militias that are interesting but the "Patriot" movement as a whole. You know the drill - less government, strict interpretation of the constitution, rah rah for god and country. I'm glad somebody is actually talking about liberty, but I get the willies that these guys are going to give the bill of rights a bad name, and eventually and spoil the much of the pro-liberty agenda for the rest of us.
But in the course of my researches, I came across the documentary that actually has caused the Waco flap that is hitting the front pages today. It's called: Waco: the Rules of Engagement. And believe me, it's not just for the black helicopter crowd - it was nominated for an Oscar for Best Documentary, and I even got to catch it when it was screened at the Honolulu Academy of the Arts (or whatever they call that museum). The audience I saw it with were probably all major PBS donors, but by end of the film, you could judge from their curses and muttering that the whole bunch wanted to go out and lynch a bunch of politicians.
Never have I come across a movie that has such a potential to radicalize it's audience. It's a doozy.
Now, the damn scandal is emerging again - thanks to a FOIA by the documentary director - and to kick it off the new and improved sequel to the original documentary will be released in a few weeks. It has already been screened for selected Congressmen, which may be one reason why the whole can of worms might get opened wider.
If the public catches onto the version of events that is presented by the Waco revisionists, it could really ignite a real firestorm (no pun intended). At best the whole thing will go away quietly. Or, Reno on down could be sacked to satisfy an unruly public that such a thing will never happen again. The worst thing would be for some well publicized hearings that go nowhere. All that would accomplish would be to widen the exposure of these rather radicalizing ideas, yet not achieve any reforms to federal law enforcement. This would perhaps push more moderate "patriots" deeper into the movement. Tim McVeigh blew up the Oklahoma federal building due to crummy Waco propaganda. I shudder to think what the next Tim McVeigh might do if this stuff gets greater exposure.
I'd say it's an emerging issue, which may very well snowball in the weeks to come (especially when the sequel comes out). Who knows, everything might just get swept under the rug once again, but if it doesn't....
Hmm. Tie it together with a Y2K induced recession, the push for gun control freaking out the NRA crowd, and Pat Buchanan running on the Reform Party ticket, and things could get pretty creepy.
Lock and Load!!
Written by Mark Justman Copyright 1999 Posted 8/31/99 http://go.to/futureplex
